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Peace Talks - The Relevance of Fragility Measures in Conflict Prevention

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PERICLES (Political Economics of Reforms, Institutional Complexity, and Legislative Evaluation Sudies) is pleased to announce the next webinar belonging to the Peace Talks Webinar Series, in collaboration with the University of Lausanne and the University of Zurich.

Thursday 9th September 2021, 04:30 — 06:00 PM (CET)

The Relevance of Fragility Measures in Conflict Prevention

In this “Peace-Talk” webinar, Dr. Hannes Mueller from IAE CSIC will discuss his research on the relevance of fragility measures for violent conflict prevention. After Dr. Mueller’s presentation, there will be an intense discussion on this topic with Sara Batmanglich (World Bank) and Gary Milante (SIPRI). A Q&A session will follow.


Hannes Mueller (IAE CSIC)

The number of armed conflicts is currently on the rise again and there is a danger that more countries will destabilize in the polit-economic aftershock of COVID-19 and the climate crisis. The webpage provides monthly updates for the risk that internal armed conflicts with fatalities will break out in the next year for over 170 countries. The forecast relies on armed conflict data from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP), modern machine learning methods, and more than 5 million newspaper articles published in the period 1989-2021. A particular focus of the methodology is on identifying risks in previously peaceful countries to provide early warning to identify opportunities to prevent new outbreaks.
In this engaging discussion, we’ll explore this new tool, the “real world” challenges of fragility measures and forecasting tools for policy-making in international organizations, and some of the opportunities that new technologies like make available to policymakers and practitioners.


Sara Batmanglich (World Bank)

Gary Milante (SIPRI)


Quentin Gallea (University of Zürich)

Massimo Morelli (PERICLES Unit Director, Bocconi University)

Dominic Rohner (HEC Lausanne, University of Lausanne)

To take part in the event, please register at the link below.

For more information, please write an email to: